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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 4/19/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has sunk 4.8 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year.

Luka Doncic has played 35.3 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 96th percentile.

The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home.

Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic slots into the 99th percentile for getting to the foul line, logging a massive 7.9 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Luka Doncic will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home usually increases player production in all stat categories.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last season's 23.4 clip, Luka Doncic's field goal attempts have regressed this season to 20.5 per game.

This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have shot 39.8% on field goal attempts (worst in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, making this a hard matchup.

The 5th-most lethargic tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Lakers.

The Lakers will likely suffer a drop-off in plays today from facing the 5th-least up-tempo pace team in the league over the last 10 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).

Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers rank 4thworst in in the NBA with only 9.7 offensive boards per game this year.

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