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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 4/11/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic ranks in the 99th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, logging 9.6 per game this year.

Luka Doncic has averaged 35.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 96th percentile.

The Lakers have been the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.

The matchup against Houston is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Rockets are on the road, opposing starting PGs have compiled the 9th-highest FG% in the league this year (45.5%).

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic places in the 99th percentile for getting to the free-throw line, logging a whopping 7.8 free throw attempts per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last season's 32.7 clip, Luka Doncic's points per game have regressed this season to 27.6.

The 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Lakers.

The Lakers will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 9th-most sluggish tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Houston Rockets).

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Los Angeles Lakers rank 4thworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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