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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 4/4/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs New Orleans Pelicans

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has averaged 34.9 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.

The matchup vs. the Pelicans is a strong one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the 3rd-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (7.1).

The Los Angeles Lakers will likely see a rise in opportunities in this game from competing against the 10th-most up-tempo tempo away team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).

Luka Doncic has made 87.7% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 9.8% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year.

As a team, the Lakers have been among the best at getting to the free-throw line while on their home court: 3rd-best in the league this year, tallying 24.2 foul shots per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 20.5 shots per game this season, significantly less than his 23.4 mark last season.

Luka Doncic has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the NBA (93rd percentile).

The 9th-least up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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