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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 3/19/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has converted 3.9 treys per game over the last 10 games, 0.6 more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year.

Luka Doncic has tallied 35.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 96th percentile.

The Lakers are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from being pitted against the 5th-fastest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Denver Nuggets).

Luka Doncic has attempted 7.6 foul shots per game this year, ranking in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league.

In regard to getting to the foul line, the Lakers's terrific 24.5 free throws per game while playing at home comes in as the best in the NBA this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has made a measly 9.1 baskets per game this season, significantly less than his 11.2 mark last season.

The matchup against Denver is a tough one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Denver Nuggets are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.5).

The 7th-slowest pace home team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

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