Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2025

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers · Mar 13, 2025

Updated Mar 13, 2025 11:24 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 11.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's attempted overall this year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic comes in at the 95th percentile for playing time, averaging a colossal 35.0 minutes per game this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have put up 21.7 points per game (highest in the league) vs. the Bucks, marking this as a positive matchup for offensive productivity.
The Los Angeles Lakers will likely get a boost in plays in this game from facing the 5th-fastest pace home offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bucks).
As a team, the Los Angeles Lakers have been great at drawing fouls: 4th-best in the league this year, drawing 23.2 free throws per game.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has tallied just 26.9 points per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 32.7 points per game last season.
The Lakers have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in further chances for scoring and assists, but the Los Angeles Lakers grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA while playing away from home with only 8.9 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 7.1 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit less than his 8.3 mark last year.
Luka Doncic should experience a decrease in performance across the board on account of being on the road in this contest.

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