Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/8/2025

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers · Mar 8, 2025

Updated Mar 9, 2025 5:00 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 9.5 shots from behind the three-point arc per game when playing away from home this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic registers in the 94th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.8 minutes per game this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have tallied 3.0 three-pointers per game (most in the league) vs. the Celtics, branding this as a positive matchup.
The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic has attempted 11.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 3.8 higher than he's attempted in all games this season.

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 32.7 mark, Luka Doncic's points per game have diminished this year to 26.8.
In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-least aggressive team in the NBA on the road this year has been the Lakers.
The Lakers have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Celtics have played at the slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce plays for the Lakers.
This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.3 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Celtics, struggling to get to the charity stripe.

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