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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 2/28/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs LA Clippers

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has been on the court for 32.0 minutes per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.

In regard to offense, the Lakers's outstanding 117.4 points per game ranks 9th-strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.

The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a strong one for field goals; when the LA Clippers are away from home, opposing starting PGs have posted the 7th-highest field goal percentage in the league this year (45.6%).

Luka Doncic has attempted 6.4 free throws per game while at home since the start of last season, ranking him in the 98th percentile among all players in the league.

The matchup against Los Angeles may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a colossal 4.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Clippers are on the road (9th-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last year's 23.4 mark, Luka Doncic's field goal attempts have fallen this year to 20.4 per game.

Relative to last year's 3.8 clip, Luka Doncic's threes converted have fallen this year to 3.1 per game.

The Lakers have played at the 6th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.

The Los Angeles Lakers will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 5th-least up-tempo tempo away team in the league over the last 10 games (the LA Clippers).

The Lakers rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

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