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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 2/27/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic registers in the 93rd percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 33.4 minutes per game at home since the start of last season.

The Lakers check in as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.

The 10th-quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the 10th-speediest tempo road offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).

Luka Doncic will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court tends to boost player performance in all facets of the game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has averaged a measly 26.4 points per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 32.7 points per game last season.

Luka Doncic has successfully made a measly 3.2 3-pointers per game this year, significantly less than his 3.8 rate last year.

The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a tough one for scoring; the opposing team's starting PGs have posted the lowest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (39.8%).

The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 6.4 free throws per game this season, quite a bit less than his 8.3 mark last season.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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