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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 2/12/2025

Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has attempted 9.5 threes per game this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among all players in the league.

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic measures in the 95th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 35.6 minutes per game on the road this year.

The Lakers check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Jazz have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Lakers.

The matchup vs. Utah is a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted an enormous 5.0 free throws per game this year when the Utah Jazz have the home court advantage (2nd-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has tallied a lowly 27.5 points per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 32.7 points per game last season.

This year when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged 1.1 three-pointers per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Utah Jazz, branding this as a difficult matchup.

The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games as the away team.

The Lakers have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

In contrast to last year's 8.3 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throw attempts has declined this year to 6.5 free throw attempts per game.

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