Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/25/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 25, 2024

Updated Dec 25, 2024 9:34 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 9.4 shots from downtown per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 97th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Luka Doncic has averaged 34.8 minutes per game at home this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
The 6th-fastest pace offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks rank 9th-best in in the NBA at home with 11.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic rates in the 98th percentile for getting to the foul line, registering an enormous 6.9 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Favors Under

In comparison to last season's 32.7 mark, Luka Doncic's points per game have regressed this season to 28.8.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games playing at home in terms of shot attempts from downtown.
This year, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 39.8% on field goals (worst in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, designating this as a challenging matchup.
The Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.
Over the last 15 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (5th-fewest in the league) vs. the Timberwolves, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

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