Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/10/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 10, 2024

Updated Dec 11, 2024 2:23 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has successfully made 4.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year.
Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic slots into the 98th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 36.6 minutes per game this year.
This year, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 7.7 3-point attempts per game (highest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, designating this as a positive matchup.
The 4th-quickest pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.
The Mavericks rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has registered just 28.7 points per game this season, quite a bit less than his 32.7 points per game last season.
The Thunder have played at the 4th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Mavericks.
Compared to last season's 8.3 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throw attempts has regressed this season to 6.8 free throw attempts per game.
Luka Doncic will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city generally decreases stat production in all facets of the game.

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