Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/7/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 7, 2024

Updated Dec 8, 2024 3:59 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has sunk 50.7% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 5.7% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season.
Luka Doncic has averaged 36.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 98th percentile.
The 5th-speediest pace away team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are expected to see a rise in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 6th-fastest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Toronto Raptors).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks grade out 5th-best in in the league with 12.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has compiled a mere 28.7 points per game this season, quite a bit less than his 32.7 points per game last season.
With respect to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 4th-least aggressive team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Mavericks.
Over the last 20 games, opposing starting PGs have registered 17.1 points per game (4th-fewest in the league) vs. the Toronto Raptors, branding this as a challenging matchup for offensive performance.
In comparison to last season's 8.3 mark, Luka Doncic's number of foul shot attempts has declined this season to 6.9 foul shot attempts per game.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (5th-fewest in the league) against the Raptors, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

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