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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 12/3/2024

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has been on the court for 34.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 90th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.

The 5th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from facing the quickest tempo away team in the NBA this year (the Grizzlies).

Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to added chances for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 9th-best in in the NBA playing at home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Luka Doncic has attempted 6.4 free throws per game this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among all players in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last season's 32.7 rate, Luka Doncic's points per game have regressed this season to 28.6.

In comparison to last year's 3.8 clip, Luka Doncic's 3-point shots hit have tailed off this year to 3.3 per game.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court with respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc.

The matchup against Memphis is a difficult one; when the Memphis Grizzlies are on the road, they have allowed the 8th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PGs this year (17.0).

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