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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 12/1/2024

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-104/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic slots into the 100th percentile for shots taken, tallying 22.6 per game this year.

Luka Doncic has been on the court for 36.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 97th percentile.

The Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Mavericks are expected to see an increase in possessions in this game from competing against the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year (the Portland Trail Blazers).

The Mavericks check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has made a mere 3.2 three-point shots per game this year, significantly lower than his 3.8 mark last year.

The Mavericks have been the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road as it relates to three-point attempts.

The matchup against the Trail Blazers is a difficult one for 3-pointers; the opposition's starting PGs have compiled the 3rd-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (29.8%).

In contrast to last season's 8.3 mark, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has diminished this season to 6.6 foul shots per game.

Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens stat production for all stats.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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