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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 11/16/2024

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic comes in at the 97th percentile for playing time, registering a massive 36.4 minutes per game at home this year.

As it relates to offense, the Dallas Mavericks's stellar 114.9 points per game ranks 10th-highest in the NBA over the last 10 games.

This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 48.4% on 3-pointers (highest in the league) vs. the San Antonio Spurs, designating this as a positive matchup.

Luka Doncic has successfully made 91.1% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 10.7% more than he's converted overall this year.

Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 4.4 free throws per game (10th-most in the NBA) against the Spurs, easily managing to get to the foul line.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has attempted and missed 13.6 field goal attempts per game this year, significantly more than his 12.3 mark last year.

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic measures in the 91st percentile for personal fouls, compiling a whopping 2.9 fouls per game this year.

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 10th-most lethargic pace in the league this year.

The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 8th-slowest pace in the league this year, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Mavericks.

The Mavericks rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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