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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 11/10/2024

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has converted 4.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 more than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season.

Luka Doncic has averaged 37.1 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 99th percentile.

With respect to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's superb 42.2 sunk buckets per game measures as the 8th-most in the league this year.

The Mavericks are expected to see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the 2nd-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Denver Nuggets).

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic measures in the 98th percentile for getting to the free-throw line, totaling a whopping 7.6 foul shot attempts per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In contrast to last season's 47.6% rate, Luka Doncic's shooting effectiveness has tailed off this season to 40.6%.

The matchup against Denver is a difficult one for three-pointers; when the Nuggets are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have posted the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (20.5%).

The 4th-most sluggish tempo away team in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic will likely suffer a reduction in performance in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this contest.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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