Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/9/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 9, 2024

Updated Mar 10, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.3 shots from downtown per game this season, a big improvement over his 8.2 rate last season.
With respect to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 119.6 points per game while playing on the road rates 2nd-most in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have posted 21.2 points per game (29th-most in the league) vs. the Detroit Pistons, labeling this as a strong matchup for offensive performance.
The Mavericks have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the league away from home this year.
The Pistons have played at the 8th-speediest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to more plays for the Mavericks.

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 2ndworst in in the league as the away team with only 8.0 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 9.0 foul shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 10.5 rate last year.
Luka Doncic will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduce stat production in all facets of the game.

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