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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 2/27/2024

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has totaled 34.3 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 100th percentile.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.2 three-point shots per game this year, a significant increase from his 8.2 mark last year.

Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic registers in the 99th percentile for playing time, tallying a whopping 37.0 minutes per game while playing away from home this year.

The Mavericks rank as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The matchup vs. the Cavaliers is a favorable one for 3-point shots; opposing starting PGs have compiled the 29th-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (41.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cavaliers have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Mavericks.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 3rdworst in in the league with only 9.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

In contrast to last year's 10.5 clip, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has declined this year to 9.4 foul shots per game.

Over the last 15 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.5 foul shots per game (13th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Cavaliers, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

Luka Doncic will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease stat production across the board.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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