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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 1/29/2024

Dallas Mavericks vs Orlando Magic

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-129/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has attempted 24.0 field goals per game this season, significantly higher than his 22.0 mark last season.

Relative to last season's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's shot attempts from beyond the arc have risen this season to 10.4 per game.

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic ranks in the 100th percentile for playing time, compiling a massive 37.3 minutes per game this year.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks grade out 11thbest in in the NBA when playing at home with 10.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

This year, their opposition has nabbed 9.6 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-fewest in the NBA) against the Magic (diminishing possessions that could otherwise generate more opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

As it relates to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's subpar 45.1% field goal percentage while at home rates 7th-fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The matchup vs. Orlando is a challenging one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Orlando Magic are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 13th-least three attempts per game in the league this year (4.9).

The 10th-most sluggish pace home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.

The Magic have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Mavericks.

In contrast to last season's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of foul shot attempts has been reduced this season to 9.2 foul shot attempts per game.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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