Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/7/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Jan 7, 2024

Updated Jan 8, 2024 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.5 three-pointers per game this year, a significant increase from his 8.2 rate last year.
Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, logging a colossal 36.7 minutes per game this year.
When it comes to offense, the Mavericks's terrific 126.0 points per game while playing at home places 4th-most in the league over the last 5 games.
The fastest pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.
Luka Doncic has successfully made 8.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 higher than he's put through the net overall this year while playing at home.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic slots into the 99th percentile for technical fouls, posting a massive 0.2 fouls per game this year.
This year, the opposition's starting PGs have shot 39.8% on shot attempts from the field (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, marking this as a difficult matchup.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 9th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 15 games away from their home court, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have secured 10.6 offensive rebounds per game (9th-highest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves (preserving possessions that can produce more chances for offense).
Over the last 15 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 foul shots per game (11th-fewest in the league) against the Timberwolves, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

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