Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 24, 2023 1:40 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-134/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has put up 32.7 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 100th percentile.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.2 three-pointers per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 8.2 rate last year.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 36.9 minutes per game this year.
The matchup vs. San Antonio is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Spurs are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PGs have posted the 30th-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (48.4%).
The Mavericks will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Spurs).

Favors Under

In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's lackluster 43.7% field goal percentage places 2nd-lowest in the league over the last 5 games.
The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 9 games has been the Mavericks.

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