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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 12/11/2023

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has made 12.6 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.7 more than he's converted over the course of the year while on his home court.

In comparison to last year's 8.2 rate, Luka Doncic's three-point attempts have jumped this year to 10.2 per game.

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic registers in the 95th percentile for playing time, averaging a monstrous 34.9 minutes per game while playing away from home this year.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA with the home court advantage this year.

This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 22.3 points per game (27th-most in the NBA) against the Memphis Grizzlies, branding this as a favorable matchup for offensive performance.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dallas Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the most lethargic pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Grizzlies).

Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 9thworst in in the NBA when playing at home with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Luka Doncic has attempted a lowly 7.9 free throws per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 10.5 mark last year.

Luka Doncic will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually worsens player performance in all stat categories.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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