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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 11/12/2023

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has made an impressive 45.5% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, a sizeable increase from his 32.7 rate last year.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.4 3-pointers per game this year, a significant increase from his 8.2 mark last year.

Luka Doncic has played 36.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 99th percentile.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

This matchup is a challenging one for field goals; when the New Orleans Pelicans are on their home court, the other team has compiled the 10th-lowest field goal percentage in the league against them this year (45.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the {OPP_TEAM}.

The Dallas Mavericks have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

While playing away from home, the Pelicans have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (18.8) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic has attempted a lowly 7.8 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit less than his 10.5 rate last season.

Luka Doncic will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium tends to worsen stat production in all facets of the game.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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