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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 11/3/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic rates in the 100th percentile for shots from the field without the home court advantage, putting up 22.0 per game since the start of last season.

Luka Doncic has attempted 8.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game playing at home since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among all players in the league.

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 35.9 minutes per game away from his home court since the start of last season.

As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA on the road since the start of last season has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, the other team has secured 9.9 offensive boards per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets (diminishing possessions that could otherwise produce added opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup vs. Denver is a challenging one; when the Nuggets are on the road, they have allowed the 12th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs since the start of last season (16.6).

The {OPP_TEAM} will likely suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 7th-most lethargic pace team in the league this year (the Denver Nuggets).

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 1stworst in in the NBA when playing on the road with a mere 7.7 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (10th-fewest in the league) against the Denver Nuggets, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

Luka Doncic is expected to experience a decrease in effectiveness for all stats due to playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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