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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 4/2/2023

Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has averaged an impressive 32.9 points per game this season, significantly higher than his 29.0 points per game last season.

Luka Doncic has attempted 9.8 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games, 1.7 higher than he's attempted overall this year.

Luka Doncic has averaged 36.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 99th percentile.

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from downtown.

The matchup vs. Atlanta is a good one; when the Hawks are at home, they have given up the 27th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 5 games (24.2).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup against Trae Young is a tough one for three-point shots; when Young is playing at home and facing opposing starting PGs this year, they have sunk a measly 29.9% of their attempts from downtown (10th percentile).

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the slowest pace in the league away from their home court this year.

The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally decreases player performance in all stat categories.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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