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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 4/1/2023

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has scored a terrific 32.8 points per game this season, quite a bit more than his 29.0 points per game last season.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 2.6 more than he's attempted overall this season.

Luka Doncic has tallied 35.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 98th percentile.

The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from downtown.

The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup vs. the Heat is a hard one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting PGs this year (16.4).

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA without the home court advantage this year.

The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. the Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.2 free throws per game over the last 10 games (15th-least in the NBA).

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