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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 3/29/2023

Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has posted an impressive 32.9 points per game this year, a big improvement over his 29.0 points per game last year.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games, 1.8 more than he's attempted overall this year.

Luka Doncic has averaged 35.8 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 98th percentile.

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 10th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 20 games.

The 76ers have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.4) in the NBA to the other team over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup against Philadelphia is a difficult one for three-pointers; when the 76ers are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PGs have tallied the 15th-least shots from downtown per game in the league this year (1.4).

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league without the home court advantage this year.

The 76ers have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 10 games at home, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Mavericks.

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road generally lowers player performance for all stats.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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