Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/22/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors · Mar 22, 2023

Updated Mar 22, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.0 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 2.2 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year at home.
Luka Doncic has played 35.8 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 98th percentile.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The matchup against Golden State is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the Warriors are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have shot for the 30th-highest three percentage in the league this year (44.9%).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 6th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (84th percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
The Warriors have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (14.0) in the league to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a positive one for getting to the free throw line; when the Warriors are away from home, opposing teams have attempted a whopping 26.2 free throws per game this year (2nd-most in the NBA).

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