Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/2/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans · Feb 2, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-114/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has scored a whopping 33.4 points per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 29.0 points per game last year.
Luka Doncic has tallied 36.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 99th percentile.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of 3-point attempts.
The Pelicans have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games away from their home city, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Mavericks.
The Pelicans have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (8.6) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has attempted just 7.9 three-point shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 9.0 rate last year.
The matchup against the Pelicans is a difficult one for attempts from downtown; opposing teams have totaled the 7th-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (36.1).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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