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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 1/12/2023

Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has posted a whopping 34.2 points per game this season, a big improvement over his 29.0 points per game last season.

Luka Doncic has made 3.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.6 higher than he's sunk overall this season while on the road.

Luka Doncic has attempted 11.6 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit more than his 7.8 rate last year.

Luka Doncic has averaged 36.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 100th percentile.

The Mavericks have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to raise plays for the Lakers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lakers have given up the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (which also reduces additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year (which also eliminates additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league when playing away from home this year.

The matchup against the Lakers is a tough one for three-pointers; the other team's starting PGs have shot for the 6th-lowest 3-point percentage in the league since the start of last season (30.8%).

The matchup against the Lakers is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a measly 2.7 free throws per game while playing at home this year (2nd-least in the NBA).

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