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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 12/29/2022

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has averaged a terrific 33.6 points per game this year, quite a bit more than his 29.0 points per game last year.

Luka Doncic has made 3.5 three-point shots per game over the last 15 games, 0.7 higher than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.7 free throws per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 7.8 rate last year.

Luka Doncic has averaged 36.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 100th percentile.

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to three-point attempts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup vs. the Rockets may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing teams have attempted a lowly 23.5 free throws per game since the start of last season (8th-least in the league).

The matchup vs. the Rockets is a hard one for three-pointers; without the home court advantage, the other team have put up the 8th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (37.4%).

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA at home this year (which will also lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year.

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