Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 12/3/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Made 3 Point Shots

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies · Dec 3, 2024

Updated Dec 4, 2024 1:35 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has been on the court for 34.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 90th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The 5th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from facing the quickest tempo away team in the NBA this year (the Grizzlies).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to added chances for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 9th-best in in the NBA playing at home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
Luka Doncic will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home stadium generally raises player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 3.8 clip, Luka Doncic's 3-point shots hit have tailed off this year to 3.3 per game.
Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic ranks in the 90th percentile for personal fouls, logging a whopping 2.7 fouls per game this year.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court with respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc.
The matchup vs. Memphis is a hard one for three-point shots; when the Grizzlies are on the road, opposing starting PGs have compiled the 5th-lowest three percentage in the NBA this year (29.6%).

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