Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 4/1/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Made 3 Point Shots

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 1, 2023

Updated Apr 1, 2023 8:51 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 2.6 more than he's attempted overall this season.
Luka Doncic has tallied 35.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 98th percentile.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from downtown.
The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; the opposition's starting PGs have averaged the 29th-most three attempts per game in the NBA over the last 5 games (7.2).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 99th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to technicals.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA without the home court advantage this year.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player performance across the board.