Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 2/11/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Made 3 Point Shots

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 11, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has tallied 36.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 99th percentile.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
The matchup vs. De'Aaron Fox is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when Fox is playing at home opposing starting PGs this year, they have successfully made a monstrous 41.7% of their 3-pointers (100th percentile).
The Kings have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league over the last 25 games in their home city, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Mavericks.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 7.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this season, significantly lower than his 9.0 rate last season.
Luka Doncic has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game while playing away from home this year, ranking in the 79th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league away from home this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court usually reduces player performance for all stats.

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