Luka Doncic Assists - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Assists

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 19, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Luka Doncic Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has compiled 8.2 assists per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 99th percentile -- among the league leaders by this metric.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic ranks in the 93rd percentile for playing time, posting a massive 34.5 minutes per game while on the road this year.
The 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 5th-fastest pace road offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Kings).
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have come down with 8.4 offensive boards per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Sacramento Kings (lessening possessions that could otherwise generate further chances for offense).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 97th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling when it comes to technicals.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 10thworst in in the league while on their home court with only 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.

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