Luguentz Dort Points - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2024

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Luguentz Dort

NBA · Player Props

Luguentz Dort

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 10, 2024

Updated Mar 11, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luguentz Dort has successfully made 2.5 3-point shots per game over the last 15 games, 0.6 higher than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season.
With respect to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's exceptional 121.9 points per game comes in as the strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 4th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games as the home team.
Luguentz Dort will enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally increases player production across the board.

Favors Under

This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 9.7 shot attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the league) against the Memphis Grizzlies, branding this as a difficult matchup.
The Grizzlies have played at the 6th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should reduce plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
In contrast to last year's 2.7 rate, Luguentz Dort's foul shots converted have diminished this year to 1.4 per game.
The matchup against the Grizzlies may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 12 games (3rd-least in the league).

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