Luguentz Dort Points - Player Prop Bet 3/8/2024

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Luguentz Dort

NBA · Player Props

Luguentz Dort

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat · Mar 8, 2024

Updated Mar 9, 2024 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luguentz Dort has converted 3.0 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 more than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this season when playing at home.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 5.8 three attempts per game (28th-highest in the league) against the Heat, identifying this as a favorable matchup.
The Thunder have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 6.0 foul shots per game (28th-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Luguentz Dort has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, putting him in the 94th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games on the road, which ought to reduce plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1stworst in in the NBA as the home team with just 8.5 offensive boards per game this year.
Luguentz Dort has successfully made a mere 1.4 foul shots per game this year, quite a bit less than his 2.7 rate last year.

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