Luguentz Dort Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Luguentz Dort

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 4, 2024 2:47 AM EST

Analysis

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luguentz Dort has made 2.5 threes per game over the last 10 games, 0.6 higher than he's made from downtown in all games this season.
In terms of shooting, the Thunder's stellar 124.6 points per game places 2nd-best in the league over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Phoenix is a strong one for three-pointers; when the Phoenix Suns are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 21st-most shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (1.9).
The Thunder have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely see an increase in plays today from facing the 2nd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Phoenix Suns).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Luguentz Dort rates in the 97th percentile for personal fouls, tallying an enormous 3.0 fouls per game this year.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with just 8.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The Suns have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 free throws per game (12th-lowest in the NBA) against the Phoenix Suns, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.
Luguentz Dort will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage tends to decrease stat production for all stats.