Luguentz Dort Points - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2024

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Luguentz Dort

NBA · Player Props

Luguentz Dort

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 20, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 1:07 AM EST

Analysis

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luguentz Dort has made 3.0 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this year.
As it relates to shooting, the Thunder's terrific 123.9 points per game ranks 2nd-most in the league over the last 25 games.
The 8th-quickest pace offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Thunder.
Luguentz Dort has converted 87.5% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games, 8.1% higher than he's made over the course of the season.

Favors Under

Luguentz Dort has averaged 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the league (96th percentile).
The matchup against the Timberwolves is a difficult one for field goals; the opposing team's starting SFs have put up the 13th-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (40.6%).
The Thunder will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities today from competing against the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 1stworst in in the league with a mere 8.3 offensive boards per game this year.
While playing at home, the Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

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