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Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort Points
Player Prop - 1/10/2024

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Thunder rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.

This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 12.2 shot attempts per game (24th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, labeling this as a strong matchup.

The Thunder have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.

Over the last 25 games, their opposition has secured 8.9 offensive boards per game (fewest in the league) against the Miami Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise lead to more chances for offense).

The matchup against the Heat may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a massive 6.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (28th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Luguentz Dort registers in the 96th percentile for personal fouls, averaging an enormous 3.1 fouls per game this year.

The rate of 3-point shots drained against Haywood Highsmith has been quite low (28.6%) when squaring off against fellow starting SFs this year (17th percentile).

The Thunder will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games (the Heat).

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Luguentz Dort will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling usually lowers player production in all facets of the game.

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