Luguentz Dort Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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Luguentz Dort

NBA · Player Props

Luguentz Dort

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 11:52 PM EST

Analysis

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In comparison to last season's 32.1% rate, Luguentz Dort's 3-point efficiency has spiked this season to 41.8%.
The Thunder have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves is a favorable one for field goal attempts; opposing starting SFs have averaged the 28th-most field goal attempts per game in the league this year (14.3).
The 10th-fastest pace road offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Timberwolves have played at the 9th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to increase opportunities for the Thunder.

Favors Under

Luguentz Dort has attempted just 4.3 treys per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 5.6 rate last season.
Among all players in the league, Luguentz Dort registers in the 84th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a massive 2.9 fouls per game while on the road this year.
The Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have grabbed 13.4 offensive boards per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves (preserving possessions that can bring about additional chances for offense).
Luguentz Dort has attempted just 2.4 free throws per game this season, significantly lower than his 3.5 mark last season.

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