Luguentz Dort Points - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Luguentz Dort

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Nov 19, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 2:03 AM EST

Analysis

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luguentz Dort has converted a terrific 43.7% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, quite a bit more than his 32.1 mark last year.
In terms of scoring, the Thunder's exceptional 118.5 points per game while on the road settles in as the 6th-highest in the league this year.
The matchup against Portland is a positive one; when the Trail Blazers have the home court advantage, they have given up the 28th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (22.6).
The 4th-quickest pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Thunder.
This year when they are at home, opposing clubs have nabbed 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (5th-fewest in the league) against the Trail Blazers (minimizing possessions that could otherwise bring about added chances for offense).

Favors Under

Luguentz Dort has attempted a lowly 4.5 3-point shots per game this year, quite a bit less than his 5.6 mark last year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luguentz Dort ranks in the 80th percentile for personal fouls, registering an enormous 2.8 fouls per game when playing at home this year.
The Thunder will likely suffer a reduction in plays today from facing the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Portland Trail Blazers).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 1stworst in in the NBA on the road with only 7.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Luguentz Dort will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road usually reduces player production in all facets of the game.