Luguentz Dort Points - Player Prop Bet 4/12/2023

NBA · Player Props

Luguentz Dort

G · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Apr 12, 2023

Updated Apr 13, 2023 2:31 AM EST

Analysis

Luguentz Dort Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luguentz Dort has been on the court for 29.9 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The matchup vs. New Orleans is a good one; when the Pelicans have the home court advantage, they have given up the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs over the last 5 games (21.4).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 25 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
The Pelicans have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (8.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luguentz Dort has attempted a mere 11.8 field goals per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 14.2 mark last year.
Luguentz Dort has successfully made just 1.8 three-point shots per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 2.6 rate last year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Pelicans have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Thunder.
Luguentz Dort will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to decreases stat production for all stats.