Lonzo Ball Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2025

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Lonzo Ball

NBA · Player Props

Lonzo Ball

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat · Feb 4, 2025

Updated Feb 5, 2025 12:54 AM EST

Analysis

Lonzo Ball Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Lonzo Ball has made 3.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.3 higher than he's made from 3-point range in all games this year on his home court.
As it relates to offense, the Chicago Bulls's excellent 116.5 points per game places 6th-strongest in the league this year.
The matchup against Miami is a good one for three-point attempts; when the Heat are on the road, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 3rd-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).
The 2nd-most up-tempo pace home team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Chicago Bulls.
Lonzo Ball has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 16.7% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Chicago Bulls.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Chicago Bulls grade out 7thworst in in the NBA with just 9.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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