Lonzo Ball Points - Player Prop Bet 1/12/2025

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Lonzo Ball

NBA · Player Props

Lonzo Ball

G · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 12, 2025

Updated Jan 13, 2025 2:29 AM EST

Analysis

Lonzo Ball Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With respect to scoring, the Chicago Bulls's outstanding 122.2 points per game places 3rd-strongest in the league over the last 5 games.
The Bulls have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Chicago Bulls will likely see a rise in plays in this contest from squaring off against the 8th-fastest pace road team in the league this year (the Kings).
Lonzo Ball should see a rise in effectiveness in all facets of the game due to enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Lonzo Ball registers in the 24th percentile for scoring ability with the home court advantage with a weak 38.7% rate this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have put up 15.2 points per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Kings, resulting in a difficult matchup for offensive effectiveness.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bulls grade out 4thworst in in the league with only 9.3 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
Lonzo Ball has attempted 0.6 foul shots per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 25th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Kings, making it tough to draw fouls.

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