LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 1/25/2025

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NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers · Jan 25, 2025

Updated Jan 26, 2025 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, LeBron James measures in the 97th percentile for shots hit, compiling a colossal 9.1 per game this year.
Among all players in the league, LeBron James places in the 94th percentile for playing time, tallying a monstrous 34.9 minutes per game this year.
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 47.0% on three-pointers (best in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, creating a strong matchup.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 9th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games in their home stadium, which ought to raise plays for the Los Angeles Lakers.
In comparison to last season's 1.4 mark, LeBron James's missed free throws have declined this season to 1.0 per game.

Favors Under

LeBron James has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 0.9 more than he's committed in all games this season on the road.
The Lakers have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 15 games when playing away from home.
The Lakers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Golden State is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 3.1 foul shots per game this year when the Golden State Warriors are on their home court (9th-least in the NBA).
LeBron James will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally lowers player production in all facets of the game.