LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 10, 2024

Updated Mar 11, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has converted 50.1% of his attempts from downtown over the last 10 games at home, 9.0% more than he's made from three over the course of the season at home.
In terms of offense, the Los Angeles Lakers's excellent 122.2 points per game rates best in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the league this year.
The matchup vs. Minnesota may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Timberwolves are on the road (6th-most in the league).
LeBron James will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage tends to increase player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

LeBron James has attempted a measly 5.3 treys per game this season, quite a bit less than his 6.8 rate last season.
Among all players in the league, LeBron James rates in the 91st percentile for technical fouls, compiling a colossal 0.1 fouls per game with the home court advantage this year.
The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a hard one; they have given up the least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PFs this year (14.5).
The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to see a decline in plays in this game from competing against the 3rd-most sluggish tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers rank 1stworst in in the league with a mere 8.1 offensive boards per game this year.