LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 12/31/2023

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NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Lakers · Dec 31, 2023

Updated Jan 1, 2024 12:09 AM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has attempted 20.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 2.2 more than he's attempted overall this season on the road.
LeBron James has successfully made 2.1 shots from downtown per game without the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 84th percentile among all players in the NBA.
LeBron James has played 34.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 90th percentile.
In terms of scoring, the Lakers's remarkable 118.8 points per game comes in as the 8th-most in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup against New Orleans is a good one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the New Orleans Pelicans have the home court advantage, opposing starting PGs have totaled the 29th-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (7.5).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Lakers will likely experience a decrease in opportunities today from facing the least up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Pelicans).
The Lakers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
When playing at home, the New Orleans Pelicans have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the league to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
LeBron James should suffer a drop-off in performance in all facets of the game in light of playing away from home in this contest.