LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 5/22/2023

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LeBron James

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets · May 22, 2023

Updated May 23, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has sunk 42.4% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 12.0% higher than he's converted from downtown overall this season while at home.
LeBron James has tallied 40.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.9 higher than he's tallied overall this year.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA this year.
LeBron James has attempted 7.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.

Favors Under

LeBron James has attempted a measly 6.8 three-point shots per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 8.0 mark last year.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a difficult one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SFs this year (13.5).
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Away from their home court, the Nuggets have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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