LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2023

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LeBron James

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers · Apr 16, 2023

Updated Apr 16, 2023 7:11 PM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has converted 4.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 more than he's made overall this season.
LeBron James has been on the court for 35.2 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 97th percentile.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year.
The Grizzlies have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should increase plays for the Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league on the road this year in terms of shots from behind the three-point arc.
The matchup against Memphis is a tough one; when the Grizzlies are playing at home, they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs this year (12.8).
On their home court, the Grizzlies have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
LeBron James will not hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road tends to worsens stat production across the board.

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